The Point: This election result should scare Democrats

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August 24, 2021 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

This election result should scare Democrats

On its face, the result of a single state Senate race isn't the sort of thing that merits national attention from the leaders of both national parties.

But there are exceptions to every rule. And what happened in Connecticut six days ago is that exception.

"I saw a preview of what may be coming in 2021 and 2022, and I just want to warn other Democrats just to not take anything for granted," Blake Reinken, who managed the Democratic candidate's losing campaign, told The Hill newspaper. "Now that Trump is gone for the most part, we have to fight double as hard to make sure that we protect our gains."

The race was in a district that Joe Biden had won by 25 points over Donald Trump back in November 2020. (Hillary Clinton won the Greenwich-based district by 18 points in 2016.) The Republican candidate, however, eked out a win with just over 50% of the vote.

It marked the first state legislative seat in the country that had flipped from Democratic to Republican since Biden has been president, according to The Hill's Reid Wilson.

And according to CNN's Harry Enten, the Connecticut result was no one-off. Wrote Harry over the weekend:

"Across more than 30 special state legislative and federal elections during the Biden presidency, Republicans are doing 4 points better on average than former President Donald Trump did in these same districts last year. ...

"... When you look at the first 17 special elections this year (through early April), the Republican overperformance over Trump was just a point. Examining the last 17 special elections, the overperformance has been 7 points. When you splice the data even further, Republicans have been outperforming the 2020 baseline by double-digits since the beginning of July."

So it's not just that Republicans have been over-performing Trump in special elections. It's that their over-performance has been getting larger and larger of late.

For Democrats, who spent the last 24 hours fighting among themselves over what should have been a legislative slam dunk, these numbers and this trend line should be very, very worrisome.

Especially because history suggests that what is happening right now is what (almost) always happens in the first midterm election of a president.

Since 1946, the average seat loss for the president's party is in the mid 20s. But more recent first-term midterm elections have been even more devastating for the president's party. Republicans lost 40 House seats in the 2018 midterms, while Democrats lost 63 House seats in Barack Obama's first midterm, in 2010.

Republicans need nothing like that sort of wave election to retake control of the House; Nancy Pelosi is speaker at the moment thanks to a paper-thin three-seat majority.

The Point: The Connecticut result isn't determinative on its own. But when you consider it as part of the broader trend, it suggests that Democrats' majority is in deep peril.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I never, ever in my wildest dreams, when I decided to run for this office, think that we'd be spending all this time protecting democracy."

-- Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, vowed to veto GOP-backed bills that he said would make it harder for residents to vote.

TUESDAY'S MUST-SEE TWEETS

1. Jerry Jones is right!

2. Oh, Kristi Noem [shakes head]

3. Another case of Havana syndrome?

4. PSL! PSL! PSL! 🎃🎃🎃

5. Roy Kent. You're welcome.

6. The Mondrian basketball court

CHRIS' GOOD READS

One of the big questions facing the country right now is how the heck do we convince the vaccine resistant to get the Covid 💉. Catherine Rampell of The Washington Post says the time for the 🥕has passed and now it's time for the stick.

I am totally fascinated by the lack of real vitriol from the right toward Joe Biden. The Upshot notes this -- and tries to explain why Republicans just can't hate Biden like they could Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton.

This piece on what Gavin Newsom's recall election means for Biden by Peter Hamby is a great angle and intriguing read.

J.D. Vance has become the candidate he said he could never support, according to The Washington Post's Philip Bump.

The Ringer's Claire McNear gets the credit she deserves -- via The Washington Post -- for asking the right questions when it came to the next "Jeopardy!' host.

I am a HUGE fan of Jason Gay of the Wall Street Journal. His latest on speed golfing -- yes, that's a thing! -- is so good.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

Noah Gundersen covering John Prine's "Clay Pigeons" is just about as beautiful as you would think it would be.

HERE COMES THE CRYPTO LOBBY

As pressure builds on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to address a cryptocurrency provision of the bipartisan infrastructure bill before a vote in the House, members of the cryptocurrency world are donating to crypto-focused organizations, hiring lobbyists and ramping up advocacy efforts in a push to get lawmakers on board with the industry, reports CNN's Rachel Janfaza.

The push follows a back-and-forth debate among senators and dueling amendment proposals earlier this month that would have modified language included in the bipartisan infrastructure package meant to regulate cryptocurrency -- which uses blockchain technology for online transactions.

While a small number of advocates with cryptocurrency think tanks and associations have been making noise in DC for years, leaders in the crypto space told CNN that the recent debate over cryptocurrency regulations on Capitol Hill caught the attention of thousands of people who were previously disengaged from politics.

Earlier this month, 25 new companies had expressed interest in joining the Blockchain Association -- a trade association with 46 existing member companies that works to educate lawmakers on and improve public policy around cryptocurrency.

Read on for more on the crypto world's political awakening.

SO *NOW* HE WANTS TO IMPEACH A PRESIDENT

South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham remained a loyal ally to former President Donald Trump throughout both of Trump's impeachments, but now Graham says he wants to impeach President Biden for his approach to the drawdown of US forces in Afghanistan.

In the latest episode of The Point, Chris explores Graham's blind loyalty to Trump and how it's still affecting his political moves.

Stick with The Point on YouTube and subscribe!

ONE BIG MILESTONE

The number of states that have had female governors. New York is the newest addition, with the swearing-in of Gov. Kathy Hochul. She is only the 45th female governor in America's 245-year history, according to data by the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University.

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