United States of America eSeries: Welcome to Peak Everything ⛰️

Welcome to Peak Everything ⛰️

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Tonight: If you build it...they will pay. Plus: the first time we've talked about "Uncrustables" in the history of Nightcap. Let's get into it.

By Allison Morrow

⛰️ PEAK PEAK

Welcome to the Peak Everything Economy.

Stocks. Housing. Cars. Heck, even baseball tickets have hit record highs (more on that later).

The economy's sudden shutdown and rapid reopening have created an unsustainable spike in asset prices. But, as CNN Business' Paul R. La Monica writes, we may be sitting atop the peak right now, for just about everything.

That means both investors and consumers should prepare for the latter half on 2021 to be a bit cooler than the first half, especially if the Delta variant becomes an even bigger problem.

BRACE YOURSELF

If you're accustomed to doing a little dance to celebrate double-digit stock gains every time you fire up the old Robinhood app… yeah, you might want to sit down to read the rest of this.

Earnings growth is expected to fall to 28% in the third quarter and 21% in the fourth quarter. In 2022, profits are anticipated to climb just 9.5%.

Once investors realize that this could be the peak of corporate earnings growth, company valuations (and stock market levels) could pull back.

But prospective homebuyers, if you can stay patient, may have a break coming. New home sales dipped in July, which might mean that buyers have finally had enough of bidding wars and elbowing the competition at every open house. If sales continue to dip, it stands to reason that prices will fall as well.

The bottom line: Inflation is high, but it's likely at or near its peak. What happens next in the labor market is the big wild card. Wages have been rising. And when workers are making more money, that has the most potential to drive longer-term prices higher.

⚾ NUMBER OF THE DAY

$1,400

Nostalgia has never been so expensive. Tonight, some fans will pay record amounts to watch the Yankees play the White Sox in Dyersville, Iowa, not far from the famous "Field of Dreams" diamond. At around 1,400 bucks, the prices are by far the highest average price ever for a regular season game, and have only been topped by a handful of World Series games.

🥨 SNACKS ARE BACK

It wasn't just panic-shopping depleting grocery shelves last year. Manufacturers actually had to stop making certain items as the pandemic hobbled supply chains and production lines.

So maybe you've been missing your reduced-fat Jif, or your favorite Progresso soup, or your Smucker's Uncrustables (which I just learned are still, like, a thing?)

All of those are examples of food that disappeared in 2020 but are making their way back.

At the height of the pandemic, with restaurants closed and grocery demand soaring, manufacturers were forced to simplify their supply chains by paring down product offerings and speeding up production lines on their most popular items, my colleague Nathaniel Meyersohn writes. That way, you can still get, say, Cholula hot sauce, but maybe not the fringe smoky-chipotle-lime-ghost-pepper-mouth-explosion variety (which I just made up, but I think it's a solid idea tbh).

QUOTE OF THE DAY

In my 24-year career in higher education … I cannot recall a time when recruitment efforts at HBCUs have been this high and have stayed this high

— Seana Coulter, director of the center for career development at Morgan State University

Administrators and career service leaders at some of the nation's top historically Black colleges and universities, also known as HBCUs, say recruitment of their students and graduates by major corporations has dramatically increased since the police murder of George Floyd more than a year ago.

WHAT ELSE IS GOING ON?

📺 Rachel Maddow, the highest-rated host on MSNBC, has held talks about leaving the cable news channel and launching her own new media ventures, according to sources who have spoken with her.

👻 The original Barneys department store in New York City is going to be a ghost town — quite literally. The space, home to the luxury retailer for almost a century, will soon morph into a Spirit Halloween store.

👟 Adidas is offloading Reebok for about $1 billion less than it paid for the label back in 2006.

💰 Bill Gates has pledged $1.5 billion over three years for climate change partnerships with the Department of Energy, through his climate investment fund Breakthrough Energy.