California voters aren't ready to get rid of their governor  Two seemingly contradictory things are both true about this moment in California politics:
1. There is likely to be a recall election this fall aimed at pushing Gov. Gavin Newsom out of office.
2. Newsom is likely to survive that recall election.
How, you ask? After all, if people are mad enough to get a recall measure on the ballot, aren't they going to follow through and, you know, actually recall Newsom?
Well, no. Or, more accurately given the unpredictability of any campaign including a recall campaign, probably not.
Start here: Last month, recall proponents turned in more than 2 million signatures in order to qualify it for the ballot. While those signatures have not been officially verified yet, the expectation among everyone in the state -- including Newsom -- is that the recall will go ahead.
In mid-March, Newsom launched a campaign to defeat attempts to recall him, which he said was led by "anti-vaxxers, Q-Anon conspiracy theorists and anti-immigrant Trump supporters."
The likelihood of the recall effort succeeding (to get on the ballot) is, however, not necessarily predictive of the chances that California voters will kick Newsom out.
In fact, according to a new Public Policy Institute of California poll, Newsom starts this recall fight in very solid position. Newsom's approval rating sits at 53% -- a number that is a) good and b) consistent with his 52% approval in PPIC polls since February 2020.
As it relates to the recall specifically, 56% of likely California voters said they would vote "no" while 40% said they would vote to recall Newsom. That's good news for the incumbent -- as is the fact that just 5% of likely voters said they were unsure whether they wanted to recall him or not.
"Moreover, seven in ten California likely voters disapproved of Gray Davis during the year of the recall (72% February 2003; 75% June 2003; 72% July 2003; 72% August 2003; 71% September 2003). And leading up to the recall election, at least half of California likely voters said they would vote to remove Davis as governor (51% June 2003, 50% July 2003; 58% August 2003, 53% September 2003)."
Now. Recall campaigns are rare. Which means that we just don't have all that much data on how this one will play out. That's why Newsom is taking no chances by aggressively campaigning against the recall before it even officially makes the fall ballot.
The Point: Obviously Newsom would have rather avoided this recall election entirely -- as it comes just a year before he is up for a second term in 2022. Nonetheless, he's in a pretty solid position to beat back the attempt to remove him.
-- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I think it's a godly thing to do, protect your brother and sister." -- President Joe Biden made a direct appeal to faith leaders to encourage congregants to take Covid-19 precautions and get vaccinated during the holy season. WHY THO  His was a norm-breaking candidacy, followed by a norm-breaking presidency. So of COURSE Donald Trump's post-presidency is going to break the mold.
Chris explains why Trump is acting so differently from other ex-presidents.
CHRIS' GOOD READS It's 'Lord of the Flies' in Trumpworld these days
Andrew Cuomo, call your office. Again.
The Vaccine Selfie
Remembering the Satanic panic
Population: 1. Burger chefs: 1
Man City versus history
George Will's Opening Day quiz
MUSICAL INTERLUDE "Under the Pepper Tree" is an album for kids by Sara Watkins, the fiddle player (and singer) for the band Nickel Creek. And this adult loves it.  Today's episode: Even more states want to legalize pot. PLAY BALL!  Happy Opening Day! Chris, a giant baseball and politics nerd, reached out to Frederic J. Frommer, author of "You Gotta Have Heart: Washington Baseball from Walter Johnson to the 2019 World Series Champion Nationals," and the head of sports PR at the Dewey Square Group, a public affairs firm in Washington, for some answers -- and a few history lessons, too!
Frommer: "The Iowa caucuses."
As every baseball fan knows, it's a long season, and you can't get too up or down based on how your team does on Opening Day. The same applies to politics, as we've seen in recent elections -- we all remember Joe Biden's fourth-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, but the performance obviously didn't doom his chances (although many experts thought otherwise at the time).
Also, Americans anticipate both events with the same kind of excitement -- after months of off-season trades and free agent signings in baseball, and debates and fundraising in politics, we finally see what our favorites can do on the field. We tune into CNN starting during the day and stay up late to watch the political results come in. Today, we will start watching games in early afternoon and the most hardcore among us will watch West Coast games that will go past midnight.
Read more from Chris' interview on why politicians love Opening Day.  ONE BIG MOVE Next week Vice President Kamala Harris plans to move in next week to the Naval Observatory, the VP's residence, now that delayed home repairs are completed, according to the White House. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox.
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