| Will Donald Trump run again?  Strike up a conversation with any Republican -- or really, any person -- and tell them you're a political reporter and the first question you always get is this: "So, is Trump running again?"
That question is, of course, both absolutely critical to the future of the Republican Party (and the country) and utterly unanswerable at the moment.
"As you know, it's very early," Trump said Tuesday in an interview with Candace Owens on The Daily Wire. "But I think people are going to be very, very happy when I make a certain announcement."
That sort of winking, you-know-the-deal response about 2024 has become de rigueur from the former President as he ponders his political future. But it also doesn't really mean anything. We are a long way off from the official (or even unofficial) start of the 2024 campaign -- we're only 183 days removed from the 2020 election and Trump still hasn't conceded defeat -- and he is legendary for changing his mind on a whim.
Plus, even if Trump wants to run, it's not entirely clear whether his ongoing legal and financial troubles will allow him to do so. That uncertainty has created a fascinating dynamic among would-be candidates -- attempting to be deferential to Trump (and his wishes) while also courting his support in the event he doesn't run.
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R) is the latest example of this ring-kissing, traveling to Mar-a-Lago to have dinner with the former President on Tuesday night.
Former US Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley felt the need to make clear that she wouldn't run in 2024 if Trump does.
Former Vice President Mike Pence touted Trump -- "we made America greater than ever before"-- at a recent speech despite the former President's ongoing animosity toward him regarding the 2020 election.
a) be the CLEAR front-runner for the Republican nomination. b) be the CLEAR underdog against President Joe Biden in the general election.
Trump remains immensely popular within the GOP base -- and almost nowhere else. Which, if he runs again, is a huge problem for Republicans -- because they can't stop him from getting the nomination (see 2016) and he will struggle to win the White House.
The Point: I'm not at all convinced even Trump knows what he will do in 2024. But the entire Republican political world will be hanging on what he decides.
-- Chris QUOTE OF THE DAY "I think it's going to be challenging, but I'm not down. I'm optimistic." -- House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer on Democrats' chances to pick up House seats in 2022. History suggests otherwise: The President's party almost always loses seats in the first midterm election following their inauguration. 5 FACTS ABOUT ELISE STEFANIK  Let's take a closer look at the Trump-backed pick to replace Rep. Liz Cheney in House GOP leadership: New York Rep. Elise Stefanik.
1. Stefanik was born in Albany, New York, to parents who run a wholesale plywood distribution company. 2. In 2012, she managed Rep. Paul Ryan's debate prep while working as a policy director at the RNC. 3. Stefanik was first elected to Congress in 2014 at age 30, making her the youngest woman elected to the House (at the time). 4. She has become a prolific fundraiser, successfully courting small-dollar donors and backing Republican candidates around the country, particularly women. 5. Before her nearly certain ascent to House leadership, Stefanik was considered a potential candidate for governor in New York.
TOP TWEETS OF THE DAY 1. The honest truth about Liz Cheney 2. Facebook kicked the can 3. Peloton 😢😢😢 4. The Covid-19 memes that might have been 5. An oldie but goodie: Jon Stewart owning Tucker Carlson 6. Lights out, Steph! 7. HOUSE OF THE DRAGON!!!! CHRIS' GOOD READS I love everything Charlie Warzel writes (I subscribe to his Substack newsletter) but this piece on Trump's new blog thing is truly terrific.
CNN's Jeanne Sahadi answers the one question everyone wants to know: How are Bill and Melinda Gates going to split up their vast fortune? And on the subject of immensely wealthy people getting divorced, this Bloomberg Businessweek piece on how Jeff Bezos beat the tabloids is amazing.
Apropos of nothing, I also loved this profile of New York Times games editor Everdeen Mason. And this, from Bleacher Report, on why no one can hit anymore.
MUSICAL INTERLUDE Most people know Will Butler for his role -- alongside his brother, Win, among others -- in the band Arcade Fire. But Will Butler makes some great solo music too. He released "Generations" -- his second solo album -- last year, and just released a remake of one of the songs from that album ("Hard Times") this past week. LET'S GET QUIZZICAL  Question: Who is the longest-serving House speaker?
a. Tip O'Neill
Send your answers to cillizza@cnn.com and lauren.dezenski@cnn.com!  ONE BIG BLOCK ... FOR NOW 🚫 Facebook's oversight board upheld the tech company's decision to bar former President Trump from its platform. But as Chris writes, regulators cannot stop Trumpism's march on Facebook. You are receiving this message because you subscribed to CNN's The Point with Chris Cillizza newsletter. Was this email forwarded to you? Sign up now to get The Point in your inbox.
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