The Point: Are Republicans better off without Ron Johnson?

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June 3, 2021 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Are Republicans better off without Ron Johnson?

Ron Johnson still hasn't made up his mind about whether he will run for a third Senate term in 2022 -- and he doesn't seem to be in any particular rush to do so.

"I don't feel any pressure to make it, really, anytime soon," Johnson told The Associated Press on Thursday of his decision, adding: "I'm undecided."

Which is interesting -- on a lot of levels, but none more so than this: Would Senate Republicans have a better chance of holding the seat if Johnson decided to retire?

That isn't a question that I would ask about most incumbents weighing whether or not to run. After all, incumbents, historically, have had a much higher rate of success in holding on to their seats than the average candidate.

(One example: Iowa Sen. Chuck Grassley, who has yet to announce whether he will run again in 2022, would have a MUCH better chance of holding the seat for Republicans than any replacement candidate if he decides to retire.)

But Johnson isn't just any incumbent representing just any state. He's a very controversial senator who has spent the last few years acting as though he represents a Republican fortress like Idaho or Mississippi when in fact he currently holds a Senate seat in Wisconsin.

There was that time when Johnson said the media was overblowing the number of people who were dying from the coronavirus. And the time he demanded that Attorney General Bill Barr provide evidence that there wasn't fraud in the 2020 election. And that other time when Johnson said House Speaker Nancy Pelosi impeached Donald Trump to distract from her role in the January 6 Capitol riot.

There's more. Much, much more. But you get the idea.

None of Johnson's out-there positioning fits the swing nature of Wisconsin. This is a state that Trump won narrowly in 2016 and Biden won by 0.6 percentage point (20,000 votes) last November. Democrats control seven of the eight statewide elected offices in Wisconsin, with Johnson the lone Republican.

In short, this isn't a state where Johnson's Trumpy-ness will play all that well. (Donald Trump himself is, not surprisingly, all in for Johnson to run for a third term; "He has no idea how popular he is," the former President said earlier this year. "Run, Ron, Run!")

While few Republicans have talked about their interest in an open-seat race -- out of deference to Johnson -- there are five GOP members in the state's House delegation, several of whom would likely take a look at the race and none of whom would start with the negatives of Johnson.

The Point: With Republicans needing just a single-seat gain to retake the majority in 2022, every seat counts. And Wisconsin is going to be a major battleground no matter what. The real question is whether Republicans would have a better chance without Ron Johnson in the race.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I don't have any update on the cat."

-- White House press secretary Jen Psaki on the much-anticipated (but not yet here) feline addition to the Biden family.

THURSDAY'S MUST-SEE TWEETS

1. George P. Bush throws his family under the bus

2. "No plans"

3. This map is going away. Hopefully forever.

4. "Fine art Simpsons"

5. No word on Uranus

6. A 🧵on doctoring baseballs

CHRIS' GOOD READS

This Vanity Fair piece answers every possible question you could have on the Wuhan lab-leak theory. Like, every one.

A depressing look in The Atlantic at how the 1/6 rioters actually won.

This piece -- recommended by Jonathan V. Last -- on what the world of magic can teach us about our current misinformation moment is incredible.

And speaking of JVL, his take on Trump's blog and the need for friction on the internet is the best thing I've read this week.

Politico's Jack Shafer sheds no tears for the death of bipartisanship.

I will read EVERY single NBA mock draft. I will also read any profile of Kevin Durant (especially one by The New York Times' Sam Anderson).

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

The Hold Steady -- Chris' favorite band -- did an NPR "Tiny Desk Concert" from the Brooklyn Bowl. This is a good day.

IS THE GOP STUCK IN 2020?

How long can former President Trump's so-called "Big Lie" about fraud in the 2020 presidential election hold the GOP captive?

In the latest episode of The Point, Chris explains why Republicans continue to be mesmerized by the "Big Lie" that the 2020 race was stolen, despite countless facts suggesting otherwise.

Stick with The Point on YouTube and subscribe!

ONE BIG BIRTHDAY

First lady Jill Biden turns 70 today -- making her the oldest first lady in history. The Bidens are on a rare midweek trip to their beach house in Rehoboth Beach, Delaware, to celebrate.

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