The Point: Here's how you can tell who's winning the fight for the Senate

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July 19, 2021 | by Chris Cillizza and Lauren Dezenski

Here's how you can tell who's winning the fight for the Senate today

Bring up the 2022 election in most crowds and you will get a lot of side-eye. And maybe a boo (or 10).

But the truth is that things that happen 478 days before the election, which is exactly how far we are from November 8, 2022, DO matter. (Take that, booers!)

The best way to think about elections -- and Senate races in particular -- is as an iceberg. The part of the iceberg that is above the water is what we see but the massive bulk of the iceberg is below the surface. Most voters only see the last six or eight weeks of a campaign. But before any voter sees what's happening, a whole lot of things have happened under the surface that shape the choice they make.

Decisions get made long before voters are paying attention that function as early indicators of what sort of national political environment we are likely to have come Election Day.

And the biggest and most important of those decisions is whether the party's strongest nominees (or those perceived as the strongest) get into the race. Typically those big gets have more to lose by, well, losing a race than a newcomer who is totally fine taking a flyer on a race -- and in a national environment -- they might not win.

Take 2020. After dropping out of the presidential race and insisting he had no plans to run for Senate, former Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (D) changed his mind -- seeing the national winds blowing in his party's favor. Ditto former Gov. Steve Bullock (D) in Montana.

Hickenlooper bet right, winning easily over Sen. Cory Gardner (R). Bullock benefitted from a good year nationally but couldn't overcome the inherent Republican lean of the Last Best Place -- coming up 10 points short against Sen. Steve Daines (R).

While the results were mixed, there's no question that Hickenlooper and Bullock were the two strongest nominees for Democrats in those states. And that they decided to run -- after lots of saying "no" -- because they believed the wind was at their backs in the national political landscape. The political climate effectively recruited them into those races.

Where should you look in this election to see what candidate recruitment is telling us? The most obvious one is in New Hampshire, where Republicans are desperately hoping that Gov. Chris Sununu (R) opts for the race against Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Sununu said recently that it "really could be until the winter" before he makes a decision.

If Sununu says no, not only will it lessen Republican chances of beating Hassan, but it will also send a signal that the political winds are not favorable for the GOP. While Sununu's decision is the big one, some Republicans hold out hope for a Senate bid by Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey against Sen. Mark Kelly (D) -- believing Ducey has the most appeal to independent voters in the state. (Donald Trump is, um, less of a Ducey fan.)

For Democrats, they landed a big recruit with Rep. Val Demings' candidacy against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio (R). A Senate candidacy by Wisconsin's Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes would be something of a coup -- and a good sign for how Democratic candidates see the playing field nationally. Same goes for former Gov. Jay Nixon in Missouri.

The Point: What happens in 2021 not only affects what happens in 2022 but also may well predict it.

-- Chris

QUOTE OF THE DAY

"I hope to God that President Trump runs in 2024."

-- GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said on Fox News that he will be "shocked" if Trump doesn't run for president again in 2024, adding that Trump "owns" the GOP.

MONDAY'S MUST-SEE TWEETS

1. The utter irresponsibility of Brian Kilmeade

2. Of course he did

3. The Trump slump is real

4. CNN+(!!!)

5. Luke Prokop makes history

6. Here comes Harry!

CHRIS' GOOD READS

The polls in 2020 missed the mark by a larger margin than they had in decades. The polling industry investigated why -- and CNN's polling director Jennifer Agiesta summed up their conclusion here.

Amid all of the hand-wringing over the Delta variant and ongoing vaccine skepticism, The New York Times' David Leonhardt argues that there is a way to persuade people to get the Covid-19 vaccine.

Mike Pence has no wind in his 2024 sails, concludes Politico's David Siders. Dead calm.

Being a mom and an Olympian is now much more doable, according to The Washington Post.

This is a fascinating read from Massive Science that suggests that beating drums is in our DNA.

MUSICAL INTERLUDE

It feels like I have been waiting forever for a new War on Drugs record. It's coming this fall -- and if it's all like the first song they released ("Living Proof"), I am going to LOVE it.

-- Chris

WORD TO THE WISE

A vaccinated Texas lawmaker who has tested positive for Covid-19 issued a warning on Twitter on Monday:

"Let our mistake be the object lesson. All of us had been fully vaccinated since March. We got complacent because we felt safe. We had no positives for months, and we got sloppy. Being vaccinated doesn't ALWAYS stop you from spreading the virus. ALWAYS MASK UP INDOORS!"

State Rep. Gene Wu was among the Texas Democrats who traveled by private plane to Washington, DC, in an effort to draw more attention to voting rights issues at the state and federal level. Since that mask-less plane ride (as captured in the picture above), at least five have tested positive for Covid-19 in so-called breakthrough cases among vaccinated people. Vice President Kamala Harris, who met with the Democrats, has since tested negative for Covid-19 despite that potential exposure.

According to Dr. Anthony Fauci, with breakthrough infections, "the overwhelming majority of those are people who either have no symptoms or only very mild symptoms," Fauci said this weekend. "So the vaccines are still very, very effective in preventing severe disease."

ONE BIG WHITE HOUSE VISIT

The Super Bowl-winning Tampa Bay Buccaneers are headed to the White House. On Tuesday, the football team will become the first since 2017 to visit after winning the Super Bowl.

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