Vaccine refusal; risk tolerance; new polling; Olympic ratings reality check; Trump's narcissism; J. Lo's Instagram reveal; week ahead calendar

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Welcome to the last workweek of July. Brian Stelter here at 11:17pm ET on Sunday, July 25 with a preview of "Sway," plus Frank Luntz, Apple, "Old," LeVar Burton, the Olympics, "review-bombing," and more...

Vaccine refusal

Vaccinated Americans are getting fed up. More than six months have passed since the Covid-19 vaccines started to roll out across the country, yet a minority of unvaxxed adults are making life riskier for everyone and extending the length of the pandemic.

That reality, amid a rise in cases and case positivity rates and hospitalizations in some states, dominated national newscasts over the weekend. The "state of our union is sad and confused, as the US suffers through yet another Covid surge, one that did not have to happen," Jake Tapper said at the beginning of Sunday's "State of the Union."

You have probably noticed that news reports about vaccine "hesitancy" have given way to reports about vaccine "hostility" and "rejection." Or, in the words of Apoorva Mandavilli of The New York Times, vaccine "refusal."

The United States will be vulnerable to every variant of Covid-19 "until it can immunize millions of people who now refuse to get the vaccine, are still persuadable but hesitant, or have not yet gained access," Mandavilli wrote Sunday. "The unvaccinated will set the country on fire over and over again."

Numerous experts shared a similar message on the Sunday public affairs programs. "This pandemic is spiraling out of control yet again. And it's spiraling out of control because we don't have enough people vaccinated," the Trump admin's former surgeon general Dr. Jerome Adams said on "Face the Nation" on CBS. He predicted "more mitigation is coming" due to the surge.

But Adams is out of the government. Dr. Anthony Fauci is still in, and he didn't go that far in an interview with Tapper on "SOTU." Fauci said the pandemic "is in retreat among the vaccinated," while unvaccinated folks are "very vulnerable," and he alluded to the "two Americas" concept we've been hearing a lot about.

On "Reliable Sources," I said we almost need two different newscasts for these two different Americas. Or two different versions of the weather report. The forecast is pretty sunny for fully vaccinated Americans but pretty bleak in some areas for the unvaccinated...

Risk and reward

ICYMI, this was my intro to Sunday's "Reliable:"

Life is one big long set of risk calculations. Get in the car, or not? Ride on the plane, or not? The pandemic is really all about risk management. Some people decide to tolerate more risk and some decide to tolerate less. But news outlets and public health authorities need to provide accurate info and help everyone assess the risks. That's especially true now, when the difference in risk between vaccinated and unvaxxed is so stark. The risk from Covid isn't going to be 100% eliminated anytime soon, so the goal is to minimize risk. That's how the story should be told...

Eye on media diets

Different news stories about vaccine resisters have focused on different parts of the problem. Julie Bosman of The New York Times spoke with "the reluctant, the anxious, the procrastinating." The "anxious" weren't repeating Tucker Carlson talking points or living deep in Facebook rabbit holes. Bosman said her main takeaway from reporting the piece was that "people are complicated, with real fear over this vaccine, and they don't always make quick, linear decisions. Many millions are still out there who are able to be persuaded."

But then there's this FT story, written by Nikou Asgari in Little Rock, Arkansas, who quoted a woman saying that the pro-Trump, anti-vaccine narrative is "a form of brainwash almost." And there's this Politico story, by Erin Banco, describing partisan opposition to Covid vaccines in Alabama and Louisiana, stating that "almost every public health official, local vaccine volunteer and physician... pointed to social media and the media as the main reason people in their neighborhoods are still holding out on the vaccine." Some of them specifically identified Fox as the key outlet.

It's all true: Some folks are persuadable and others are not. Andy Slavitt shared this note of caution on "Reliable Sources:" Yes, he said, "we are all anxious for the unvaccinated to get vaccinated, but... lumping them into a category of people that are 'defiant' or 'stupid' or some other thing is probably not helpful. It only seeks to alienate people further. I think we probably ought to try to understand that group of people better if we really want to bring them into the dialogue and participation process."

In other words, save the vaccine shaming for the bad actors who are spreading misinformation.

Don't be fooled

As Oliver Darcy and I discussed on "Reliable," Fox has not transformed itself. Despite some PR maneuvers and some subtle, short-lived changes by specific hosts, many of the most trusted figures in right-wing media are still sowing doubt about vaccines...

-- On a related note, here is Harry Enten's latest: Fox News viewers "are about 20 points less likely to have received a Covid vaccine dose than viewers of ABC/CBS/NBC or CNN/MSNBC..."

FOR THE RECORD, PART ONE

-- "Don't punish the vaccinated," Michael Smerconish says: Private employers are mandating shots, so "why isn't President Biden mandating all federal employees get vaccinated?" He said that "allowing the unvaccinated to control virus policy" is "unjust and unhealthy. It's time for government to lead..." (Twitter)

-- "Biden and his aides have so far been careful to avoid pinning outright responsibility for the situation on those Americans who have declined to be vaccinated," Kevin Liptak notes... (CNN)

-- Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who is running for Arkansas governor, penned an op-ed about getting vaccinated. There are some comms lessons embedded in it. She concludes: "Filter out the noise and fear-mongering and condescension, and make the best, most informed decision you can..." (Arkansas Democrat-Gazette)

-- CNN's Pamela Brown called out Sanders' delayed support for vaccines... (CNN)

-- "A Vaccine Or This Marriage:" Jesselyn Cook says "conspiracy theories are tearing couples apart..." (HuffPost)

Frank Luntz's view

GOP pollster Frank Luntz, who "has been working with the Biden admin and public health experts to craft effective messaging to bring the vaccine hesitant off the fence," held another focus group with vaccine holdouts last Wednesday, The AP reported.

Luntz said afterward that "the hesitation has transformed into opposition. And once you are opposed, it is very hard to change that position. And that's what's happening right now." He noticed that misinformation is creating a kind of fog within his focus groups. The participants, he said, "can't tell the difference between what is accurate and what is fake. So it makes it virtually impossible to communicate when they don't know what to believe."

>> Here's an example that Luntz tweeted: "The most common reason people don't get vaccinated is 'we don't know the long-term side effects.'" Luntz said doctors should repeat epidemiologist Brian Castrucci's response to the focus group: "Severe vaccine reactions happen within days, they don't take years. We've been vaccinating people for several months. It's safe."

FOR THE RECORD, PART TWO

-- Covid concern is fading: New ABC/Ipsos polling shows that 20% of Americans are "very concerned" and 42% are "somewhat concerned" that they or someone they know will become infected with the virus. "That's the lowest level of concern" in the poll going back to March 2020... (ABC)

-- "Vaccinations picking back up -- about 790k in past 24 hours," WH chief of staff Ron Klain tweeted Sunday evening, citing a CDC report. "Might be the biggest 24-hour period since early July. Thanks to everyone involved..." (Twitter)

-- Speaking of Biden... His approval rating has been "the most stable for any president since the end of World War II," Harry Enten writes. It has never risen above 55% or fallen below 51% in an average of polls... (CNN)

-- Paul Kane's analysis could double as a media critique: "A hallmark of President Biden's agenda on Capitol Hill is that, viewed inside a given six-day window, it usually looks like choppy waters. But take the long view, over the past six months, and things appear a bit more smooth..." (WaPo)

-- Coming Monday: Kara Swisher's next guest on "Sway" is Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot. Among other topics, Lightfoot addresses the criticism of her brief move to grant one-on-one interviews exclusively to journalists of color... (NYT)

Media week ahead calendar

Monday: President Biden delivers remarks to celebrate the 31st anniversary of the Americans with Disabilities Act...

Monday: LeVar Burton begins his week as "Jeopardy!" guest host. Esquire has a preview here...

Tuesday: The House select committee probing 1/6 will hold its first hearing. Will right-wing TV networks carry it live or ignore it?

Tuesday: New nonfiction releases include Ilhan Omar's "This Is What America Looks Like" and Ben Shapiro's "The Authoritarian Moment..."

Tuesday: Cuba Gooding Jr.'s next court appearance in his groping trial, per 5 Things...

Thursday: Lollapalooza begins at Grant Park in Chicago...

Friday, via Brian Lowry: "Disney's 'Jungle Cruise' hits theaters, Disney+ (at a premium) and the back side of water (park insider joke). Will Disney report 'consumer spend' again, or was that a one-time only deal?"

Tech week ahead calendar

Tuesday: Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft all report earnings after the bell...

Wednesday: Facebook reports earnings after the bell...

Thursday: CNN Business holds its first Foreseeable Future event of 2021, including a conversation with Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella...

Thursday: Amazon earnings after the bell...

FOR THE RECORD, PART THREE

-- A pair of stories on the front page of Sunday's NYT: "The most influential spreader of coronavirus misinformation online" and "Biden's antitrust team signals a big swing at corporate titans..." (NYT)

-- New from the BBC Trending team: "The YouTubers who blew the whistle on an anti-vax plot..." (BBC)

-- "The Back-to-Work Puzzle:" The WSJ has a long takeout on companies "starting to summon workers back, though many employees prefer more flexible office schedules..." (WSJ)

-- With summer music festivals resuming, Delta is showing up "like an unwelcome gate-crasher," Kim Bellware writes... (WaPo)

SURPRISE, SURPRISE...

NSA review finds no evidence supporting Tucker's claims

Tucker Carlson repeatedly claimed that "the NSA read my emails, and then leaked their contents." Even his own colleagues were skeptical. And for good reason: "A National Security Agency review of its intercepts did not find any evidence that Fox News host Tucker Carlson's communications were intercepted by the NSA," CNN's Jeremy Herb reported over the weekend, citing two sources familiar with the matter.

The Record, which first reported this story, said the NSA review "found that Carlson was mentioned in communications between third parties and his name was subsequently revealed through 'unmasking.'" Again: That's not what Carlson alleged. Fox didn't address the glaring discrepancies between Carlson's wild-eyed claims and the apparent reality, but did issue a disingenuous statement...

Today in Trump...

Trump said something true in an interview with supporter slash lawyer slash OAN host Christina Bobb over the weekend: He said his Big Lie about a "rigged" election is "the biggest issue with the Republican party and the Republican voter."

"When I get up and speak, all they want to talk about is the election fraud," Trump said. Then he defaulted back to lies ("it was the crime of the century" and "our country's going to hell because of a rigged election") but he hit on something revealing about the MAGA base: Grievance about Trump's loss to Biden is the most animating issue. Just turn on OAN for a few hours, as I did over the weekend. You'll hear it loud and clear.

From Sunday's show...

-- On "Reliable," I made the case that Trump's continued promotion of the Big Lie makes sense "when viewed through the prism of narcissism." I also observed that political reporters are becoming more explicit about describing Trump's "delusions..."

-- "Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present" author Ruth Ben-Ghiat joined me for the first time. She said Trump "has the same personality traits as many of these leaders I've studied..."

-- During that same segment, Carl Bernstein made some news by calling Trump America's "own war criminal," something that we've never seen before...

One of the day's most depressing stories

No offense, Max Fisher, but this is a really discouraging story. Important, however. A "secretive industry" is exploding in scale: "Disinformation for hire." Fisher says "back-alley firms meddle in elections and promote falsehoods on behalf of clients who can claim deniability, escalating our era of unreality." Read his full piece for the NYT here...

FOR THE RECORD, PART FOUR

-- Pegasus Project stories, revealing global phone hacks targeting activists, journalists and others, are exposing a "darker side of Israel's 'startup nation' image," Hadas Gold writes... (CNN)

-- With a baby girl on the way, Abby Phillip signed off "Inside Politics Sunday" to begin her maternity leave. "See you later this year," she said... (Twitter)

Opening ceremony ratings reflect NBC's Olympic challenge

Friday's opening ceremony "drew about 17 million viewers in the US on Friday on NBC, a roughly 36% decline from the opening ceremony for the Games in 2016," the WSJ's Lillian Rizzo and Suzanne Vranica reported. The time zone difference certainly didn't help. But the audience changes in the past five years have been profound. "Nobody expects there to be the same number of people viewing as there were in 2016," Insider's Claire Atkinson noted on "Reliable Sources." She also said NBC should get "almost like the benefit of the doubt, a couple more days, and see where the audience hits." That said, the opening ceremony decline was more precipitous than some expected. "I'm sure if that continues, Madison Avenue will be baying for blood," she added...

Lowry's caveats

Brian Lowry writes: "I'm not here to carry NBC's water, but here are a few barometers you won't see in early Olympic ratings stories -- some of which are of considerable importance to Comcast brass. First: Peacock signups and heightened awareness. Second: Awareness of new NBC series coming in the fall. (Someone asked me if I'd seen 'Ordinary Joe,' a new show promoted during the Games.)" Also: The value of the Olympics as a showcase for NBC talent, from 'Today' to late night. Look for #'s showing NBCU's share of the audience among those who are actually watching linear television -- that is, how much space Comcast's networks are occupying in a pond that's a lot smaller than it was five years ago."

Lowry adds: "Also, while the raw ratings decline is obviously a legitimate yardstick and newsworthy, beware of inevitable bad-faith analysis, particularly from the 'get woke, go broke' crowd that has shown itself to be eager to tout ratings declines in award shows, sporting events, etc., without much context about the overall shift from linear to VOD..."

Olympic notes and quotes

-- A fair point from Joe Flint: Maybe The Olympics are "no longer a big uniting event. Or maybe the games never were but in a three-channel or even 30 channel universe it just felt like they were."

-- On the other hand: Olympic stories are at the top of multiple news websites' most-read lists right now, hinting at widespread interest in the contests...

-- And Peacock is "hitting high on the free app charts today," Atkinson tweeted a few hours after our interview. "Moving up from number 8 yesterday..."

-- Leslie Jones has resumed her unique brand of Olympic TV tweeting...

-- I still can't get over the surreal nature of the empty stands. Here's Kate Bennett's report from Tokyo while traveling with Jill Biden: "FLOTUS cheered harder because no one else could..."

-- NBC is using Tokyo coverage to "kick-start a new marketing campaign for 'NBC Nightly News' and anchor Lester Holt, branding the NBC veteran as 'The Anchor for America,'' THR's Alex Weprin reports...

FOR THE RECORD, PART FIVE

-- About the Pillar: "A Catholic newsletter promised investigative journalism. Then it outed a priest using Grindr data," Michelle Boorstein, Marisa Iati and Elahe Izadi report... (WaPo)

-- Taking the Los Angeles County Sheriff's criticism head-on: Columnist Robin Abcarian met with Alex Villanueva to discuss his critiques of the LA Times and wrote all about it... (LAT)

-- "James R. Polk, a journalist who won the Pulitzer Prize in 1974 for his reporting on the Watergate scandal for the old Washington Star, and who later worked with NBC News and CNN, died July 15 at his home in Marietta, Ga. He was 83." (WaPo)

-- This remarkable obit by Kit Seeyle was widely shared among journos on Sunday: "Laura Foreman, Reporter Whose Romance Became a Scandal, Dies at 76" (NYT)

Julie K. Brown on the importance of local journalism

Julie K. Brown's new book "Perversion of Justice" expands on her Jeffrey Epstein investigation for the Miami Herald and simultaneously depicts the decline of local news. We talked about both on Sunday's "Reliable Sources." When a newspaper closes in a community, Brown said, "I think that the community will be more prone to having corrupt leaders." We talked about that in the context of conspiracy theories, too...

--> Steven Waldman makes a related point in this Washington Monthly piece: "Rebuilding local news would also help rebuild trust in the media — which is crucial because studies have shown that the more people distrust the media, the more likely they are to spread misinformation."

"Old" beats "Space Jam"

"In a twist fitting for an M. Night Shyamalan thriller, 'Old' is the No. 1 movie at the domestic box office with $16.5 million in ticket sales," Variety's Rebecca Rubin reports. It's a surprise since, "reigning champ 'Space Jam: A New Legacy' and fellow newcomer 'Snake Eyes' were projected to lead North American charts. Instead, "Space Jam 2" had a huge decline from its opening weekend and 'Snake Eyes' fell slightly short of expectations, leaving 'Old' to slither to a surprising first place finish..."

>> Matthew Belloni's box office takeaway: "Yes, Delta. Yes, Olympics. But also yes: Every movie available at home craters in second weekend at box office..."

FOR THE RECORD, PART SIX

-- "Comedian Jackie Mason, known for his rapid-fire befuddled observations in a decades-long standup career, died at a New York hospital Saturday." He was 93. (CNN)

-- Lucas Shaw reports that franchise masters Joe and Anthony Russo have a "half-dozen or so universe-creation projects" in development for big and small screens. That's a lot of universes! (Bloomberg)

-- New by Laura Bradley: "Exploited Hollywood assistants are at their breaking point — and fighting back..." (Beast)

Kevin Smith gets "review-bombed"

Brian Lowry writes: "Variety's Adam B. Vary has an excellent breakdown of how Kevin Smith set out to make a new 'Masters of the Universe' series for its adult fans, and how a segment of them 'review-bombed' the Netflix show anyway. It's a toxic side of fandom that has become increasingly common, though the blowback looks even more ludicrous when connected to a franchise that wasn't particularly good in the first place."

Instagram official (but not grid-official)

CNN's Alaa Elassar has the story: "Looks like Jennifer Lopez and Ben Affleck have made it Instagram official."

She notes that Lopez didn't tag Affleck in the photo. My better half Jamie went a step further, observing that Lopez didn't make the kiss shot the first post in her carousel of pictures, but rather made it the fourth and final shot, so they're not "grid-official" yet 😉

A commentary on the status of their relationship, perhaps? We all know how seriously some people take their Instagram photo choices...